WHY FEBRUARY 14 WILL BE A ‘DO OR DIE’ AFFAIR.....MUST READ!

In two of my posts in the month of December of the year 2014, I asserted that history truly matters. In our National consciousness, the reported experiences of our forefathers have continued to shape our policy formulations and strategic approach to the future. Agencies of Government make budgetary and administrative forecasts based on figures from previous years, even the CBN formulates policies based on historic economic behaviours and patterns. We are indeed a nation under the guidance of historical lessons.

I have heard people discuss time and again  how bloody the February 14 Presidential elections might turn out to be; some people, including yours sincerely, have even gone ahead to say Nigeria might cease to exist after February 14. Even these fears are factors of our conscious remembrance of such heated elections in the past. Worse still is the fact that the fight for the Aso Rock seat will go down to a straight tussle between the core-Hausa North, and the minority South-South. While the former wants to return to power because they believe in some ways that they were born to rule, the latter are desperate to keep power for another four years because they feel whatever be good for the goose, has to be good for the gander. The tussle is fully on and one must say with all sincerity, that the factors responsible for the imminent danger are more North-ish than a factor of the South-South people.

With all due regards to my Northern friends, it is clear now to all persons who ever had any close proximity to a Northerner that their quest for power and leadership is insatiable such that even when confronted with ridiculous choices, they do not hesitate to make them; as long as power is the reward! I term this the North’s power greed and leadership lust. Unfortunately, the Northerners often do not want this power for the purpose of society welfare; they rather pursue power so they can continue dominating the political scene while enriching themselves and their generations yet to be born. I do not hope to sound divisive.

I quickly narrate the story of a Northerner with whom I participated in the one year mandatory NYSC scheme in Akwa Ibom State. Often called ‘Abdul’, he got so obsessed with the position of ‘Corper Leader’, a make-believe office created by the Principal as the representative personality of all Corps Members in the school. Fortunately for him, he got the position; but as hard luck will shine on him, he had one no-nonsense Corps Member in the house – me. He was supposed to be just a ‘representative’ of Corps Members in case we had issues to discuss with the school management but in no time, he became management himself. He quickly became ‘Corper Principal’. He was a typical example of the power-greedy north and the overbearing tendencies of his ancestors. I gave him a good run for his money though; that meant a happy ending for me.

You begin to ask the question, why does the North want power so desperately? And then you go on to ask, why are the Niger Deltans so desperate not to lose it? Is it just pursuit of power just for power sake or there are reasons hiding behind one finger? I found three reasons in my extensive research.

NORTHERNERS ARE TOO PROUD TO ALLOW A MINORITY TRIBE RULE THEM

As I have said earlier, Northerners have an innate tendency to always want to be at the helm of affairs wherever they find themselves. A northerner will even struggle for leadership within a band of blind beggars! In that wise, they begin to query the sanity behind allowing themselves to be governed by a tribe considered to be minority inside of minority. Why allow an Ijaw man rule you when you have the voting power to upturn his victory?

The Northern elites believe that no tribe in Nigeria can run the nation as good as them - northerners. God proved to be mightier than them when Yar’adua died to pave way for a Niger Delta President and I say with all conviction that if the Northern elders could bring God down from heaven and flog him for that single act, they will gladly press forward. It was the death of President Yar’adua that paved the way for GEJ to become President; otherwise the South-South will never have tasted Aso Rock even in acting capacity.

The Northerners will constantly ask themselves, how can we allow a man whose geopolitical zone has only 6 States govern those of us with 19 States? They ask, how do we explain to our forefathers who laid the foundation for our eternal reign over Nigeria? It is not really their fault, power to Northerners is like water is to fish; the only means of survival! Save for now that governments at all levels are encouraging Northern youths to get education, academic qualifications in the North has always been seen as a waste of precious time. Instead of going to a proper school, a real Northerner will prefer to forge a certificate, learn some words of English with which he can speak on National Television; you then begin to see him campaigning for a Senatorial or Governorship or even Presidential seat. Why should we blame them? They can’t farm, they lack education and they are lovers of luxury; that leaves only one option – politics. To them, it is the only means of survival, the only leverage they have against the well educated South.

While we were going to school and getting our degrees as Southerners, Northerners searched frantically for power instead of academics. Obviously therefore, any attempt by any Southerner to diversify into their power adventure will meet stiff resistance by the Northern elites and their attack dogs and then trouble will start – real trouble! This is the first reason.......

THE NORTH IS AGAINST THE PRINCIPLE OF FEDERAL CHARACTER

Prior to the advent of democratic rule in 1999, the era of Military rule in Nigeria was characterized by a Northern dominance which saw around 85% of the total number of military rulers Nigeria ever had being Northerners. This would not be a major issue if these northern military rulers had allowed the principle of Federal Character to still take effect. On the contrary though, the Northern military rulers unbalanced the Federal Character Principle and choked the entire Nigerian Civil Service with their kinsmen, learned or unlearned. These acts of violation of our National principles is the reason why some senior Civil Servants in the Federal Ministries nowadays can hardly communicate in quality English.....they came in through tribal sentiments.

Upon the advent of democracy, and in the face of current realities where the Northerners can no longer draft their yet-to-graduate children into the government Civil Service, they feel it is time for them to take back what belongs to them. Just as every other part of Nigeria, the North now has a sizeable population of unemployed young persons. This is contrary to the experiences of the military days where an average Hausa child will get a government employment before finishing Secondary School and his counterpart in Oyo State will finish University and still stay jobless. The Northern elites want that back....the opportunity to flood the Nation's Civil Service with their own children without much qualification or due process at the expense of their Southern counterparts who will not get employed even with Postgraduate degrees. And this is the second reason...

MOST OIL EXPLORATION LICENSES WILL EXPIRE IN 2016

This is probably the major bone of contention. Most oil exploration licenses are due to expire in the year 2016 and will be open to re-issuance. It is an open secret that the licenses of most of these oil companies will not be renewed in favor of some other companies, especially such that the Federal Character Principle may be fulfilled in OPL and OML allocations. Currently, the OPL and OML ownership looks like this:

• Cavendish Petroleum, the operators of OML 110, awarded to Alhaji Mai Deribe of Borno State (North East), makes an average of about N4bn monthly.
• Seplat/Platform Petroleum, operators of the ASUOKPU/UMUTU marginal field has Prince Sanusi Lamido (not CBN Governor) as a major shareholder and Director.
• South Atlantic Petroleum Limited (SAPETRO), was established by Gen. Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, who is also the Chairman of ENI Nigeria Limited. SAPETRO partnered with Total Upstream Nigeria Limited (TUPNI) and Brasoil Oil Services Company Nigeria Limited to become operators of the OPL 246.
• AMNI International Petroleum and Development Company is owned by Alhaji (Colonel) Sani Bello of Kotangora, Niger State. They are operators of OML 112 and OML 117.
• A former Petroleum minister and former OPEC chairman, Rilwanu Lukman, another northerner, manages AMNI oil blocks and with very key interests in the NNPC/Vitol trading deal.
• Oriental Energy Resources Limited, a company owned by Alhaji Indimi, runs three oil blocks: OML 15, the Okwok field and the Ebok field.
• Alhaji Aminu Dantata’s Express Petroleum and Gas Limited operates OML 108.
• OML 113 allocated to Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum Limited is owned by Alhaji. W.I. Folawiyo.
• OPL 291 was awarded to Starcrest Energy Nigeria Limited, owned by Emeka Offor, which was sold by Starcrest to Addax Petroleum. Emeka Offor still has a stake in Addax operations in Nigeria.
• Mike Adenuga’s Conoil is the oldest indigenous oil exploration industry in Nigeria with six oil blocks.
• Alhaji Saleh Mohammed Gambo’s North East Petroleum Limited is the holder of the OPL 215 licence. 
• NOREASTER Petroleum was awarded blocks OPL 276 and OPL 283 and closing thereupon a Joint Venture Agreement with Centrica Resources Nigeria Limited and CCC Oil and Gas.
• INTEL is owned by (Abubakar) Atiku, Yar’Adua and Ado Bayero and has substantial stakes in Nigeria’s oil exploration industry, both in Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe”.

Of the 13 OPL and OML sampled above, only three (3) of them are owned by Southerners. The question becomes that, if we are to set the principles of Federal Character aside and operate the principles of Fiscal Federalism, will the Northerners in the first place have so much access to the ownership of major oil blocks located within the South-South region? How can the Niger Delta suffer grave economic dangers for natural resources which Northerners are daily plundering?

The truth be told, the Northerners wish for this OPL and OML ownership to continue. Unfortunately, the continuity of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan beyond 2015 will jeopardize that interest. This was the same reason why their men in the House of Representatives and the Senate expressly rejected a single tenure of six (6) years as proposed by President Goodluck Jonathan. If GEJ wins again, 2016 will witness a paradigm shift from the Northern dominance of the nation's economic prosperity to a situation where the prosperity of the Northerners will be synonymous with the amount of economic boost that the FG receives from their region. It is this same fact that made their delegates at the National Conference vote expressly against Fiscal Federalism. It is this same reason that the likes of Tinubu and his greedy friends are being so desperate; who does not want an oil block to himself? And this is the third reason.

Based on the above reasons, the North desperately wants to regain power, but the Southerners being tired of playing second fiddle and being taken for a ride, will desperately strive to retain power during an era that will see the re-definition of Nigeria's economic characteristics for the next 100 years. When these two desperate forces of 'regain' and 'retain' clash, I hope Nigeria will not burn so bright that its fire will illuminate the entire global space.

Namaste!

ODERINU ADEDAYO T.

08067361945

ibuckresources@gmail.com