We cannot describe a state whose
politics is characterized by serious drama, constant back-hand deals and heated
contests without considering Oyo State to be the most qualified State for that
sort of description. Various political gladiators flex muscles when it is time
to contest elective positions. Even more amusing is the fact that at such
moments of increased political muscle-flexing, even traditional rulers become
political gladiators trying to promote their personal, and in rare cases,
community interests. Such scenarios were obvious in the 2011 elections.
Prior to the 2011 elections,
there had been diverse speculations as to which of the top contenders (Alao-Akala
– PDP, Ajimobi – ACN, Ladoja – Accord Party) possessed more clout than the
other three and as such stood at pole position to win the contest. There was a
lot of behind-the-scene horse-trading between candidates and traditional
rulers, candidates and other candidates, even INEC officials were not spared
the lobbying pressures of these politicians.
Looking from all indications,
save for the adamant refusal of the Alaafin of Oyo to support Otunba Alao-Akala’s
second term bid and the ominous gang-up of certain Ibadan elements against him,
Alao-Akala looked certain to clinch victory and run a second term in office.
Those of us who analyzed using such key indicators were almost proved right
when results of the gubernatorial election began to trickle in and Otunba
Christopher Adebayo Alao-Akala was in a clear early lead. To our chagrin
however, owing to some unforeseen wielding of the magic wand by the Ibadan
anti-Akala gang-up at the last minute, Ajimobi was returned as the winner. It
was a major electoral surprise.
Till date, different schools of
thought have proposed various hypotheses concerning the events that culminated
in Alao-Akala’s loss, but what is certain and clear to all, is that he was a
victim of top-level antagonism from people who he has either offended at some
point in his political ascension or whose political standings have been
threatened by his growing political prowess. Whichever way you choose to look
at it, the most important thing is, Ajimobi won that election and became the
Governor of Oyo State.
It is almost 2015 and time again
to decide who rules Oyo State for the next four years. Expectedly, the usual
accusations and counter-accusations has commenced and the Oyo State political
scenario is getting hotter every passing day. However, while some contestants (the
contenders) can lay claim to assured popularity, some others are contesting to
make themselves known (the pretenders) and possibly get selective positions if
and when the candidates they eventually ‘step down’for becomes Governor.
For instance, the
declaration of interest to run for
Governorship by one of the sons of Alhaji Lam Adesina (no offence intended),
will appear to any keen political observer as a cheap popularity stunt and an
attempt to make himself known as the political replacement for his late father.
It is clear to all that such contestants are more interested in making people
see them on the faces of campaign posters than they are interested in becoming
the Oyo State Governor. I am still laughing.....
Of the contestants, five occur to
me as serious contenders who have the clout and the wherewithal to go all the
way and win the election. These five, without fear of being misunderstood are: Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, Senator Isiaka
Abiola Ajimobi, Senator Rasheed Adewolu Ladoja, Engr. Seyi Makinde and Alhaji
Sarafa Alli. Each of these contestants have their core strengths and areas
where they enjoy a near-god followership and are as such sure of securing
maximum votes from such places. Let us cross-examine these suitors for our
beautiful bride – the Oyo Government House.
Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala lost due to certain forces as I have
outlined earlier, but has decided to re-climb the same horse that threw him in
2011. Some political observers believe he should have run for Senate instead,
but he seems to believe he can do a better job than the present man at the helm
of affairs. What stands in his favour, is the resounding followership he enjoys
in his Ogbomoso constituency, a followership he has so diligently oiled over
the years financially and otherwise. One other factor that could work in favour
of Otunba Alao-Akala is the fact that majority of Oyo people have now come to
realize that they made a gross mistake in choosing Ajimobi over Alao-Akala.
Where Akala ran a government with a human face, Ajimobi has so far ran a
government that is textbook-based in its approaches to governance, never making
concessions towards alleviating the sufferings of the masses. In all these
areas, Otunba Alao-Akala stands tall while not lacking in sound antecedents of
infrastructural development while he was Governor of the State. He is not only
a contender but one with a high tendency to return to government.
Senator Isiaka Abiola Ajimobi is the incumbent Governor of Oyo
State, a fact he will be hoping to use to his own advantage when the chips are
down in 2015. However, the same fact that worked for him and against
Alao-Akalain 2011 is staring at him in the face this term – Oyo people somewhat
superstitiously believes it is wrong for them to serve one person twice! Much
greater worries for him are the seeming hostility of the Oyo State people
towards his government in recent times, his poor project completion antecedents
which has made life unbearable for people living in Ogbomoso, Apete and various
other areas of the State and his unrepentant projection of his wife’s image
above that of his deputy at every given opportunity. He sure is a serious contender
but from my standpoint, he will be wise not to expect a second term in office.
Senator Rasheed Adewolu Ladoja was Governor of Oyo State between
2003 and 2007, missing only in action for 11 months during which Otunba
Alao-Akala was made Governor of the State. He was known to be a Civil Servant
Governor but was grossly lacking in the area of infrastructure development.
Known as a gentleman, he enjoys good support in Ibadan particularly being one
of the city’s high chiefs. He is a top contender, but one who has to work
harder at extending his support base beyond Ibadan city if he is to make any
serious headway at the polls.
Engr. Oluseyi Makinde is also another top contender who has taken
the Oyo State political scene by surprise. Though he belongs to the same party
as Otunba Alao-Akala, he has been going about his campaign activities as if he
has been annointed by the PDP. The commitment he has shown, the contacts he has
established and the distance he has covered in the short time he came into the
scene presents him as a very serious contender for the position. He is quite
young and some will call him inexperienced on the seemingly hot political turf
of Oyo State, but having dedicated so much to his vision, we must take him
serious.
Alhaji Sarafadeen Alli on his end has been in the political scene
of Oyo State for a while having been Secretary to the State Government at some
point. He is believed to be experienced politically and has the capacity to
lead Oyo State. However, the obvious virginity of his Labour Party in the
scheme of things in Oyo State makes him vulnerable to a disturbing defeat as
recorded in Osun State. I believe he has a good chance if he is able to
overcome the huge financial capabilities of the APC and PDP coupled with their
vast political experience.
I am not a soothsayer neither am
I any experienced politician of any sort, but looking from my point of view,
the likes of Folarin, Adedoja and Baba Lam’s kid are not seriously gunning for
the Government house but are seeking certain ends which I may not be
immediately aware of. Ultimately, I believe one of these listed above will
govern Oyo State from 2015 till 2019, I pray it is my favoured candidate.
Namaste!
