Before I introduce you to my thoughts for the night, I must clearly tell you this. The facts as stated herein are verifiable facts that I came in contact with in the course of my experiences. People who have divergent opinions are allowed to bring them forward with facts.
JONATHAN HAD MORE ENEMIES THAN WE KNEW
In the year 2012, I had a personal encounter with an Uncle of Chief Godswill Akpabio. In fact, the man in question is today the one he refers to as his father, having lost his biological father at a tender age.
I must say, the senior Akpabio is as outspoken as Obot. In the course of our deliberations, he made certain shocking revelations that I still consider very highly till date. Most important of these revelations was the fact that Goodluck Jonathan was a stumbling block to Godswill's ambition. As you will expect, we got curious and asked for explanations.
He explained, that assuming Yar'adua had completed his two-term regime, Akpabio was being well positioned to run for Presidency in 2015. When Yar'adua died, many of the people who belonged to this school of thought believed Jonathan should not have sought reelection in 2011. According to the old man, Jonathan knowing that he is fry in the politics of the South-South should have bowed out and allow Northerners complete their tenure, then would Akpabio have had his chance.
Unfortunately, Jonathan came up for reelection and he won, putting the ambitions of the likes of Akpabio in real jeopardy. I can say categorically at this point, that the clamour for Jonathan's step-down in 2011 was largely sponsored by elements within the South-South, it was indeed the hand of Esau but the voice of Jacob. Key among these sponsors was Rotimi Amaechi and Godswill Akpabio.
When Jonathan eventually got elected, Akpabio had to quickly resolve the rift between them so he could be free of FG intimidation. Amaechi on his end did not do this. To even completely pacify Jonathan, Akpabio named the flyover entering UYO town after Jonathan. That was when the rift was settled and he promptly became one of Jonathan's backroom men. I must quickly point out that Akpabio did not get into GEJ's backroom because he trusted him completely, he got there because GEJ knowing how weak he was had to stuff up his backroom with tough politicians who had the clout he lacked. That was Mimiko and Akpabio's opportunity.
In the rundown to 2015 therefore, it was not only Rotimi Amaechi that did not wish GEJ well, a good number of his backroom people wanted him gone. I believe till today that Akpabio still nurses that Presidential ambition and he was one of those who didn't wish him well at all.
APC IS A COALITION OF NON-IDENTICAL BEDMATES
The politics of the US is such that each party is known for a certain manifesto as well as a particular set of ideologies. For example, the Republicans are known to be pro-rich while the Democrats seem to be more pro-masses. This explains why many Republicans kicked against the Obama healthcare bill.
In Nigeria here, many
analysts and watchers make the mistake of thinking political parties in
Nigeria do not have peculiar ideologies. They do. It must be said that
the three notable parties in the country before the 2011 elections may
not have clearcut manifestos, but the unifying factor of the members was
an agreement of ideologies.
The PDP was a party of conservatives; the ACN was a party of progressives while the CPC were more of fundamentalists. Members of the PDP were not really joined by desire for power only, but they were joined by similarities in their governance ideas and political views. The ACN were joined by their belief in progressive ideologies, radical changes to the social structures and all that, while the CPC were joined together by their similar saintly beliefs and non-corruptive dispositions.
In the buildup to 2015 however, a new political party was born, the APC. This was not a party born of an agreement of ideologies of the founders, it was indeed born of similarities of goals, that allowed all parties set their ideologies aside for the time being. APC was formed, leading to the first conglomeration of politicians of varied ideas upon the same platform. The conservatives (new PDP) had to agree with Progressives (ACN) and the Fundamentalists (CPC) to achieve just one goal....send Jonathan packing.
As the first part of this post made clear, there were many elements within the PDP who wanted Jonathan gone. A good number of these elements went into the APC while the rest stayed back and ensured that they misled GEJ until he lost at the polls. They all served the same purpose.
What we have today therefore, is an in-house disagreement within the APC that is a product of the glaring differences the constituent parties had in their ideologies. A political party runs by just one ideology and not an amalgamation of ideologies.
There will always be a tussle in this party.
PDP WILL REGROUP AND ITS ALREADY STARTING
One worrisome trait about the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is the fact that he is driven by desire only. He is never involved in a sincere struggle for the soul of the masses...baba always have a personal desire at the end of every struggle.
If we rewind and look into the genesis of the crisis between Baba and GEJ, we will notice the attempt by Jonathan to completely wrest control of the party from OBJ. This would have meant that he was going to lose the power to anoint anybody he wanted at anytime he desired. That meant Jonathan's head must go. The APC became the perfect opportunity for this vendetta.
Now that GEJ is gone and PDP has been humbled, the deserters from the party know very well that sojourning for long in the APC will be near impossible due to the domineering status of Tinubu.
In the power calculations however, the CPC ideologists own the President, ACN ideologists own the Vice President while the PDP ideologists own the Senate President and Speaker House of Representatives.
As power calculations continue, to attain higher power in preparation for the politics of 2019, the PDP ideologists are fully aware that they must amass as much power as possible to be able to produce the President come 2019, hence they must have maximum representation in the FEC. That then is where the Ministerial battles and Rotimi Amaechi comes in.
AMAECHI IS A CONSERVATIVE AND HIS PDP TIES ARE STILL VERY INTACT
A lot of unobservant analysts believe that Rotimi Amaechi has suddenly become the champion of the South-South because he 'single-handedly' championed the ouster of Jonathan. No, Amaechi had allies within the PDP who were supportive of his cause. As I showed in Part 1, Akpabio is one of these people, I am very certain.
Amaechi's travails in the Senate were stage-managed events only presented to Nigerians to give us the belief that the PDP deserters and their counterparts who stayed back are no longer in league. They are.
HOW IS AMAECHI'S CONFIRMATION A PLUS FOR THE PDP?
For the PDP to keep its 2019 hopes alive, Bukola Saraki must retain the seat of Senate President while Ekweremadu must as well remain on his seat. This will mean the PDP is still in complete control of the nation, albeit through the backdoor.
Amaechi was a stone that was used to kill two birds. It looked to everybody that one of the preconditions for Saraki to have at least temporal peace is to dance to the tune of the President on Amaechi's case. Refusing to dance to this tune would mean efforts at sending him packing will intensify and he will then have real problems.
Clearing Amaechi on one hand meant the President will presently leave Saraki alone as Senate President. The PDP can continue having their control.
On the other hand, clearing Amaechi meant one of the very people in the PDP fold who orchestrated the exit of GEJ has been established in this present government. The meaning of this is, the moment the PDP decides to regroup, their persons are well positioned to promote whatever agenda they decide to float come 2019.
Of all these drama, one thing is certain. Amaechi belongs to the camp of the conservatives and he will return to that camp openly or secretly as things continue to unravel.
The plus for the PDP here is, one of theirs get to remain President of Senate, they keep Nigerians guessing as much as possible, and they get to acquire as much Federal might as possible while staging a dramatic walkout.
I fully expect that by 2019, one of Amaechi, Saraki and Akpabio will be contesting President and these three overly ambitious men, will by then be in the same party!
It might as well be PDP, or wherever Baba leads....do I have to tell you who Baba is?
Namaste!
08158402483
The PDP was a party of conservatives; the ACN was a party of progressives while the CPC were more of fundamentalists. Members of the PDP were not really joined by desire for power only, but they were joined by similarities in their governance ideas and political views. The ACN were joined by their belief in progressive ideologies, radical changes to the social structures and all that, while the CPC were joined together by their similar saintly beliefs and non-corruptive dispositions.
In the buildup to 2015 however, a new political party was born, the APC. This was not a party born of an agreement of ideologies of the founders, it was indeed born of similarities of goals, that allowed all parties set their ideologies aside for the time being. APC was formed, leading to the first conglomeration of politicians of varied ideas upon the same platform. The conservatives (new PDP) had to agree with Progressives (ACN) and the Fundamentalists (CPC) to achieve just one goal....send Jonathan packing.
As the first part of this post made clear, there were many elements within the PDP who wanted Jonathan gone. A good number of these elements went into the APC while the rest stayed back and ensured that they misled GEJ until he lost at the polls. They all served the same purpose.
What we have today therefore, is an in-house disagreement within the APC that is a product of the glaring differences the constituent parties had in their ideologies. A political party runs by just one ideology and not an amalgamation of ideologies.
There will always be a tussle in this party.
PDP WILL REGROUP AND ITS ALREADY STARTING
One worrisome trait about the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is the fact that he is driven by desire only. He is never involved in a sincere struggle for the soul of the masses...baba always have a personal desire at the end of every struggle.
If we rewind and look into the genesis of the crisis between Baba and GEJ, we will notice the attempt by Jonathan to completely wrest control of the party from OBJ. This would have meant that he was going to lose the power to anoint anybody he wanted at anytime he desired. That meant Jonathan's head must go. The APC became the perfect opportunity for this vendetta.
Now that GEJ is gone and PDP has been humbled, the deserters from the party know very well that sojourning for long in the APC will be near impossible due to the domineering status of Tinubu.
In the power calculations however, the CPC ideologists own the President, ACN ideologists own the Vice President while the PDP ideologists own the Senate President and Speaker House of Representatives.
As power calculations continue, to attain higher power in preparation for the politics of 2019, the PDP ideologists are fully aware that they must amass as much power as possible to be able to produce the President come 2019, hence they must have maximum representation in the FEC. That then is where the Ministerial battles and Rotimi Amaechi comes in.
AMAECHI IS A CONSERVATIVE AND HIS PDP TIES ARE STILL VERY INTACT
A lot of unobservant analysts believe that Rotimi Amaechi has suddenly become the champion of the South-South because he 'single-handedly' championed the ouster of Jonathan. No, Amaechi had allies within the PDP who were supportive of his cause. As I showed in Part 1, Akpabio is one of these people, I am very certain.
Amaechi's travails in the Senate were stage-managed events only presented to Nigerians to give us the belief that the PDP deserters and their counterparts who stayed back are no longer in league. They are.
HOW IS AMAECHI'S CONFIRMATION A PLUS FOR THE PDP?
For the PDP to keep its 2019 hopes alive, Bukola Saraki must retain the seat of Senate President while Ekweremadu must as well remain on his seat. This will mean the PDP is still in complete control of the nation, albeit through the backdoor.
Amaechi was a stone that was used to kill two birds. It looked to everybody that one of the preconditions for Saraki to have at least temporal peace is to dance to the tune of the President on Amaechi's case. Refusing to dance to this tune would mean efforts at sending him packing will intensify and he will then have real problems.
Clearing Amaechi on one hand meant the President will presently leave Saraki alone as Senate President. The PDP can continue having their control.
On the other hand, clearing Amaechi meant one of the very people in the PDP fold who orchestrated the exit of GEJ has been established in this present government. The meaning of this is, the moment the PDP decides to regroup, their persons are well positioned to promote whatever agenda they decide to float come 2019.
Of all these drama, one thing is certain. Amaechi belongs to the camp of the conservatives and he will return to that camp openly or secretly as things continue to unravel.
The plus for the PDP here is, one of theirs get to remain President of Senate, they keep Nigerians guessing as much as possible, and they get to acquire as much Federal might as possible while staging a dramatic walkout.
I fully expect that by 2019, one of Amaechi, Saraki and Akpabio will be contesting President and these three overly ambitious men, will by then be in the same party!
It might as well be PDP, or wherever Baba leads....do I have to tell you who Baba is?
Namaste!
08158402483
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