DOES THIS OUR PRESIDENT KNOW WHAT HE IS DOING?

Its Night Thoughts today again with your amiable friend, Dayo Oderinu. Let's take this ride together tonight and reason together!

Two days ago, President Muhammadu Buhari became five months old as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. These five months being crucial takeoff periods is undoubtedly a time that should have been utilized for setting clear roadmaps for governance, formulating and making known key government policies that will shape the actions of this government for the remainder of its four years.

The most important question is, do we have any roadmap so far? Because he just clocked five months, I will examine his government using five key issues that affect our collective future. These are areas where I believe he has completely lacked knowledge.

1. WHY SHOULD WE KEEP DEFENDING THE NAIRA WITH OUR FOREIGN RESERVE?

I like to simplify complex government statements such that a layman can easily understand how these big vocabularies affect his life.

In recent times, the CBN has been defending the value of the Naira with our Foreign Reserves. What does this mean?

It is a known fact that crude oil remains the largest foreign exchange earner for Nigeria. Nigeria import activities on the other hand relies on the nation's foreign exchange to transact business. What this simply means is, the value of the dollars available to importers to transact their business is a function of how much forex the nation earns per time. Because the Nigerian system is such that encourages import at the expense of local production, that import forex requirement is quite huge.

In the days when crude sold competitively in the market, importers had access to huge foreign exchange as the country was earning wonderful figures in this regard. Then prices of crude crashed and the crisis began. Two things became evident in the face of the crisis that followed: it became difficult for importers to access foreign exchange, as little was coming in, so the forces of demand and supply settled in, and the dollar began selling at outrageous rates. The second thing that became evident is, Nigeria no longer earns enough from crude sales to fund its import requirements.

Instead of allowing marketplace determine the value of the Naira however, Baba's administration in his bid to force up the value of the naira, due to his uninformed campaign promises, is allowing the CBN to continue defending the naira with our foreign reserve.

The problem with this arrangement is, the FG through the CBN will keep depleting the Reserve towards defending the naira; unfortunately, if crude oil prices do not go up soon, we might end up emptying the reserve and the problem will still be left unsolved.

The common sense solution was, discourage importation as much as possible, stimulate local production at all cost and drastically reduce the nation's requirement for the dollar. But pending that time, allow the market forces dictate the value of the naira. Yes, commodity prices will go up, but it will soon spread around and once local production is promoted, the temporal hardships will disappear.

That was why I asked the question, why did Col. Hamid Ali (Rtd) lift the ban on rice importation? The answer that I got from pro-Buhari politicians was that the nation was losing much to smugglers, so it became better to lift the ban and receive appropriate duty payments. This argument is deficient. Even in the US, consumer products are daily smuggled from Mexico into the US....I am saying every nation loses a sizeable amount to smugglers in duty payments. Which risk was costlier? Attempting to increase duty collectibles or the fact that forex requirements will skyrocket in the process of legalizing rice import? I prefer we make our borders as secure as possible and continue to disallow the importation of rice so we can encourage local production.

Baba Buhari has ignorantly been pursuing a monetary policy that does not in any way contribute to the long term value of the naira and yet is draining our foreign reserves. He has not performed at all in this regard!

4. WILL BOKO HARAM TRULY END IN DECEMBER? AND WHERE ARE THE CHIBOK GIRLS?

It is saddening to note that in the last five months of President Buhari's administration, the mindless killings going on in the North East seem to have taken an even more worrisome dimension. People are now being killed like lizards.

What is baffling about the whole scenario is, Buhari boasted before the elections that Boko Haram would become history before he clocks one month on the seat. He won public sympathy with his many talks about Jonathan's incapacitation to end Boko Haram and his bad disposition towards the rescue of the Chibok Girls.

Today however, we are seeing more killings, the army is saying they do not even know the location of the girls again while Baba has continued feeding us with December deadline. Is this still possible? Why are we not seeing Madam Ezekwesili and her followers run campaigns for the chibok girls as they did in Jonathan's time? Do we assume that the Chibok drama was a fraud after all?

The big assertion here is, from all reports and indications, Baba has done no better than GEJ in the fight against insurgency. All we have right now, is the same worrisome situation still pending in our society.

5. WILL WE DRIVE ON ANTI-CORRUPTION?

So far, a number of projects that were already ongoing before GEJ left office have been abandoned.

Of notable importance is the Lagos-Ibadan expressway that was supposed to ease the vehicular movements that has long become worrisome on this route. The big question here is, if projects are being suspended because Baba is busy fighting corruption, shall we then drive on anti-corruption highway now?

The fight against corruption is commendable if sincere, but while we fight corruption, we must as well allow for the full functionality of government institutions.

We do not necessarily have to cripple the system because we must catch thieves!

I ask that we all join hands and pray for Buhari though, for in the success of his administration lies also peace and prosperity for us, lest we have a failed government at the end of these four years!

Have a blissful night!

THE POLITICS OF APC AND THE PEOPLE WHO JONATHAN'S EXIT FAVOURED

Before I introduce you to my thoughts for the night, I must clearly tell you this. The facts as stated herein are verifiable facts that I came in contact with in the course of my experiences. People who have divergent opinions are allowed to bring them forward with facts.

JONATHAN HAD MORE ENEMIES THAN WE KNEW
In the year 2012, I had a personal encounter with an Uncle of Chief Godswill Akpabio. In fact, the man in question is today the one he refers to as his father, having lost his biological father at a tender age.
I must say, the senior Akpabio is as outspoken as Obot. In the course of our deliberations, he made certain shocking revelations that I still consider very highly till date. Most important of these revelations was the fact that Goodluck Jonathan was a stumbling block to Godswill's ambition. As you will expect, we got curious and asked for explanations.

He explained, that assuming Yar'adua had completed his two-term regime, Akpabio was being well positioned to run for Presidency in 2015. When Yar'adua died, many of the people who belonged to this school of thought believed Jonathan should not have sought reelection in 2011. According to the old man, Jonathan knowing that he is fry in the politics of the South-South should have bowed out and allow Northerners complete their tenure, then would Akpabio have had his chance.

Unfortunately, Jonathan came up for reelection and he won, putting the ambitions of the likes of Akpabio in real jeopardy. I can say categorically at this point, that the clamour for Jonathan's step-down in 2011 was largely sponsored by elements within the South-South, it was indeed the hand of Esau but the voice of Jacob. Key among these sponsors was Rotimi Amaechi and Godswill Akpabio.

When Jonathan eventually got elected, Akpabio had to quickly resolve the rift between them so he could be free of FG intimidation. Amaechi on his end did not do this. To even completely pacify Jonathan, Akpabio named the flyover entering UYO town after Jonathan. That was when the rift was settled and he promptly became one of Jonathan's backroom men. I must quickly point out that Akpabio did not get into GEJ's backroom because he trusted him completely, he got there because GEJ knowing how weak he was had to stuff up his backroom with tough politicians who had the clout he lacked. That was Mimiko and Akpabio's opportunity.

In the rundown to 2015 therefore, it was not only Rotimi Amaechi that did not wish GEJ well, a good number of his backroom people wanted him gone. I believe till today that Akpabio still nurses that Presidential ambition and he was one of those who didn't wish him well at all.

APC IS A COALITION OF NON-IDENTICAL BEDMATES
The politics of the US is such that each party is known for a certain manifesto as well as a particular set of ideologies. For example, the Republicans are known to be pro-rich while the Democrats seem to be more pro-masses. This explains why many Republicans kicked against the Obama healthcare bill.

In Nigeria here, many analysts and watchers make the mistake of thinking political parties in Nigeria do not have peculiar ideologies. They do. It must be said that the three notable parties in the country before the 2011 elections may not have clearcut manifestos, but the unifying factor of the members was an agreement of ideologies.

The PDP was a party of conservatives; the ACN was a party of progressives while the CPC were more of fundamentalists. Members of the PDP were not really joined by desire for power only, but they were joined by similarities in their governance ideas and political views. The ACN were joined by their belief in progressive ideologies, radical changes to the social structures and all that, while the CPC were joined together by their similar saintly beliefs and non-corruptive dispositions.

In the buildup to 2015 however, a new political party was born, the APC. This was not a party born of an agreement of ideologies of the founders, it was indeed born of similarities of goals, that allowed all parties set their ideologies aside for the time being. APC was formed, leading to the first conglomeration of politicians of varied ideas upon the same platform. The conservatives (new PDP) had to agree with Progressives (ACN) and the Fundamentalists (CPC) to achieve just one goal....send Jonathan packing.

As the first part of this post made clear, there were many elements within the PDP who wanted Jonathan gone. A good number of these elements went into the APC while the rest stayed back and ensured that they misled GEJ until he lost at the polls. They all served the same purpose.

What we have today therefore, is an in-house disagreement within the APC that is a product of the glaring differences the constituent parties had in their ideologies. A political party runs by just one ideology and not an amalgamation of ideologies.

There will always be a tussle in this party.

PDP WILL REGROUP AND ITS ALREADY STARTING
One worrisome trait about the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is the fact that he is driven by desire only. He is never involved in a sincere struggle for the soul of the masses...baba always have a personal desire at the end of every struggle.

If we rewind and look into the genesis of the crisis between Baba and GEJ, we will notice the attempt by Jonathan to completely wrest control of the party from OBJ. This would have meant that he was going to lose the power to anoint anybody he wanted at anytime he desired. That meant Jonathan's head must go. The APC became the perfect opportunity for this vendetta.

Now that GEJ is gone and PDP has been humbled, the deserters from the party know very well that sojourning for long in the APC will be near impossible due to the domineering status of Tinubu.

In the power calculations however, the CPC ideologists own the President, ACN ideologists own the Vice President while the PDP ideologists own the Senate President and Speaker House of Representatives.
As power calculations continue, to attain higher power in preparation for the politics of 2019, the PDP ideologists are fully aware that they must amass as much power as possible to be able to produce the President come 2019, hence they must have maximum representation in the FEC. That then is where the Ministerial battles and Rotimi Amaechi comes in.

AMAECHI IS A CONSERVATIVE AND HIS PDP TIES ARE STILL VERY INTACT
A lot of unobservant analysts believe that Rotimi Amaechi has suddenly become the champion of the South-South because he 'single-handedly' championed the ouster of Jonathan. No, Amaechi had allies within the PDP who were supportive of his cause. As I showed in Part 1, Akpabio is one of these people, I am very certain.

Amaechi's travails in the Senate were stage-managed events only presented to Nigerians to give us the belief that the PDP deserters and their counterparts who stayed back are no longer in league. They are.

HOW IS AMAECHI'S CONFIRMATION A PLUS FOR THE PDP?
For the PDP to keep its 2019 hopes alive, Bukola Saraki must retain the seat of Senate President while Ekweremadu must as well remain on his seat. This will mean the PDP is still in complete control of the nation, albeit through the backdoor.

Amaechi was a stone that was used to kill two birds. It looked to everybody that one of the preconditions for Saraki to have at least temporal peace is to dance to the tune of the President on Amaechi's case. Refusing to dance to this tune would mean efforts at sending him packing will intensify and he will then have real problems.

Clearing Amaechi on one hand meant the President will presently leave Saraki alone as Senate President. The PDP can continue having their control.

On the other hand, clearing Amaechi meant one of the very people in the PDP fold who orchestrated the exit of GEJ has been established in this present government. The meaning of this is, the moment the PDP decides to regroup, their persons are well positioned to promote whatever agenda they decide to float come 2019.
Of all these drama, one thing is certain. Amaechi belongs to the camp of the conservatives and he will return to that camp openly or secretly as things continue to unravel.

The plus for the PDP here is, one of theirs get to remain President of Senate, they keep Nigerians guessing as much as possible, and they get to acquire as much Federal might as possible while staging a dramatic walkout.

I fully expect that by 2019, one of Amaechi, Saraki and Akpabio will be contesting President and these three overly ambitious men, will by then be in the same party!

It might as well be PDP, or wherever Baba leads....do I have to tell you who Baba is?

Namaste!

08158402483

WHAT REALLY IS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE?

On today's session of night thoughts, we will attempt to answer together, a fundamental question that begs answers if our democracy will ever grow.

What is the will of the people (electorates)?

On April 11, 2015, I witnessed all manner of despicable undemocratic practices at the various polling units that I was privileged to visit. The memory of that fateful day, coupled with recent happenings at the tribunals, has prompted me to ask this very important question. What is the will of the people? Is it a PDP-led government? Or APC-led? Or LP-led? Or what?

In one of the polling units I visited, I witnessed firsthand the attempt by one sycophant to intimidate members of an opposition party. He had a field day shooting sporadically in the air, while the police officers looked without concern. As the opponents mobilized to retaliate, the police began their own round of shooting and this festival of gunshots went on for almost two hours. In this scenario, the police obviously helped the troublemaker to oppress his opponents. This troublemaker was APC, the opponents were AP.

The night before the elections however, I witnessed the attempt by one of the political parties to rubbish one electoral officer based on devilish accusations. She was manhandled, embarrassed and handed over to the police for an offence she did not commit. Her release took the combined efforts of members of another party. The liars in this case were AP while the rescuers were APC.

On the day of the election again, I witnessed the unruly behaviour of one party agent. He was so unlawful that he attempted to confiscate the card reader from the APO II for his unit. His reason was, the officials refused to show him the card reader after every scan. It took the combined efforts of several elders to calm the situation. The troublemaker in this case was LP while the peacemakers were APC and PDP.

In another polling unit, I witnessed the trouble-ready disposition of one of the party agents. He was so badly mannered that he picked fights with every person whose opinion differed from his at the unit. We were able to control his troubles eventually though. He was PDP.

The irony of this illustration is, all of the parties involved acted illegally at one point or the other. Their actions were tailored at every instance, towards intimidating voters and creating undue advantages for their parties. Yet, these same parties will go on air today and claim to be fighting for the mandate of the people. Which mandate?

During the Presidential elections, Prof Attahiru Jega did the unexpected. Around midday, he instructed that all poll officials revert to manual verification of voters since the card readers were malfunctioning in many places. Factually speaking, this instruction gave the APC undue advantage in a State like Kano and the PDP undue advantage in a State like Rivers. Both parties exploited the situation and committed grave electoral offences. These actions were repeated in the Gubernatorial election.

You ask me, why are all these facts necessary? To answer two other important questions I'll tell you.

1. As majority of the judgement delivered at the tribunals have favored APC so far, majority of their supporters have been describing the situation as 'victory for democracy', 'victory for the rule of law' and in some cases, 'victory for the will of the people'. Do we call it true victory for the rule of law or political manipulations?

2. Most politicians of PDP extraction are claiming the APC has been victimizing their party at the tribunals thereby jeopardizing the free will of the people. Do we call it jeopardizing free will of the people or we call it survival of the fittest?

Clear instances have seen all of the political parties involved in electoral malpractices. We can therefore not adjudge any of them to be running on the free will of the Nigerian people. They all hijacked the will of the people at locations where they were stronger than their opposition. Would that still qualify as the people's will?

If the will of the people is being hijacked at the polls, it means the will of the people is still unknown. This is not good enough for our democracy.

What this should also mean to any right-thinking Nigerian is, we must brag moderately about the acceptability of any of these political parties. They all are hijackers of political will!

What then, is the will of the people?

Sleep good!

NIGERIAN YOUTHS: SHALL WE NOW TAKE POWER WITH IGNORANCE?

Tonight on our series of Night Thoughts, I feel compelled to address a fundamental issue that has bedeviled our society for a long time.

In one of our radio sessions, a young person called in to 'market' himself as is the practice on our programme. In the course of marketing himself he said, 'I am looking for a company that will ACQUIRE me...' At that point, the word 'acquire' began to sound to me like something I never heard before. How on earth can any job seeker be looking for a company that will 'acquire' him? How else can one describe a pathetic use of English?

On social media, youths have started apportioning to themselves, self-acclaimed roles of media warriors and uncommissioned image makers. Unfortunately, when you read through majority of these presentations, you find ignorance screaming therein. An example is the simplistic analysis of legal processes without even the faintest knowledge of the provisions of the constitution.

A young person who should likely be about my age called me yesterday to discuss an official issue. I responded by asking him to call me during working hours as I was not equipped at that moment to give effective responses. The next question he asked me was, 'when'? I replied, 'working hours' and he asked again, 'Thursday or Friday?' For me, that was the height of frustration, so I asked him, 'since when did they change working hours from Monday to Friday, 8am - 4pm?'

I brought these examples not because I want to ridicule anyone, but because I want us as youths to correct an anomaly. I want us as youths to immediately deal with the disgraceful ignorance that we display in many situations that could have given us lifetime opportunities.

We have made so much noise in recent times about the elders not willing to hand over governance to us. How do you feel safe handing over governance to an ignorant generation? How do we expect these elders who laboured with their lives to build our nation to now feel safe handing over their sweats to youths who do not know the difference between the ECA and the SWF? How do you hand over an economy you laboured to build to a young person who cannot simply define foreign exchange?

Social media is today not helping our situation at all. I see too many young persons fighting for Amaechi, Saraki, Wike and the others on Facebook while forgetting to develop their own lives. The 'roforofo' analysis that Facebook has afforded everyone is now making a mess of the lives of our youths. Why meddle in the fight of Amaechi and Wike when you are not in anyway building yourself to one day become better than them?

We make so much noise about politicians sending their wards abroad. I am sure they are doing so to separate their children from the ignorant pack. Politicians are everyday distancing their children from the corruptive tendencies of today's youths, yet, the youths are not doing anything to better their lives by improving on the contents of their brains.

In Soyinka's era only, a lot of scholars developed. We could begin to talk of Achebe, Fagunwa et al. How many has my generation produced? Are we just here to become yahoo boys and political criminals? Are we even trying to grow?

While the young men are busy wasting away trying to dupe white people, their lady counterparts are busy opening their laps to any monkey who can afford a nice hotel room. What have we turned our society into with this pitiable ignorance?

Those who ruled as young people got the chance because they were loaded with wisdom acquired from dedication to study and information acquisition, not by perpetual clubbing, addiction to sex and drugs amidst other social vices. Murtala Mohammed would not be President at 28 he was a junkie or a dullard.

Yes, we are leaders of tomorrow. Literally, that tomorrow would have been now, but our tomorrow will only come when our brains are filled to capacity!

Until then, shall we take over power with ignorant minds and empty heads?

MBA!

IS THE CHANGE FINALLY HERE?

And before you sleep, lemme quickly give you this to ponder on overnight...

As was the case in the Primary election of Oyinlola vs Isiaka Adeleke in 2002, the Primary election that produced Iyiola Omisore as the candidate of the PDP in the 2014 gubernatorial election was an aberration...it was everything short of internal democracy.

In 2002, the Governorship Primary elections of the PDP between Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Isiaka Adeleke was decided in Abuja because everything on home soil pointed to the fact that Adeleke was going to emerge as the winner of that election.

In Abuja however, many authentic delegates discovered to their chagrin that the PDP had manufactured another person to bear their names. So, the moment you get to the door, attempt to get accredited, they just tell you the person bearing the name is already inside. Plain simple democratic coup... The reason given was, every spiritual consultation had it that Adeleke could not defeat Akande. Let's leave that...

In 2014 as well, Iyiola Omisore was produced on the platform of PDP through almost the same kind of democratic coup that took place at GMT events centre in Osogbo.

The difference between 2003 and 2014 as I see it is, if the PDP had allowed a free and fair primary, Omisore would still have won because he had adequate control of the party structure and he had the money for good effect.

Unfortunately, it was not a matter of winning or not winning. It was a matter of a fundamental defect in the very foundation of our democracy. We seem to believe in forceful acquisition of power without allowing the freewill of the people to prevail.

This is evident in the APC too, one party that is notably notorious for never conducting primaries. While the PDP does forceful acquisition through stage-managed primaries, the APC does forceful acquisition through anointing of desired candidates by privileged godfathers. They as well utilized the stage management method in some cases.

Today, the APC is the other side of the PDP coin, so I do not see our democracy progressing. All I see is a continued celebration of democratic unrighteousness.

Between the PDP and the APC as they are presently constituted, Nigeria is in between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Until a fundamental redefinition of our political values is undertaken, our #change has not come...we are only marching on the same spot!

THE DEATH OF THE PDP & THE COMING DEATH OF THE APC!!

I missed my session of goodnight thoughts yesterday due to circumstances beyond my control. My apologies.

Here is your midnight thoughts for today. Ponder on these issues while you go to bed and come up with whatever decision suits your life!

In 2003 when Oyinlola was elected the Governor of OSUN State, his intention was not the Gubernatorial election. He was actually preparing to run for Senate. The then executives of the PDP decided to convince him to run because of the negative image already imprinted in the hearts of the people concerning Isiaka Adeleke as being a wasteful spender and a bad manager of resources. This coupled with 'spiritual consultations' meant Adeleke was not sellable.

Oyinlola being a neutral candidate acceptable to all parties was wooed and he consequently contested. The politicking that led to his emergence is not my focus on this session.

When he finally became Governor, Oyinlola showed signs of being a good administrator, promptly fixing the errors of the immediate past administration. Of significant importance was his reabsorption of retrenched workers.

Few years down the line however, his political activities began showing a worrisome pattern. It is said that absolute power corrupts absolutely, this played out in Lagun's case. All of a sudden, he became a dictatorial politician who would singlehandedly pick candidates without primary elections or coerce opponents into stepping down. His second term ambition against Kola Ogunwale, Jumoke Etteh vs Wale Ajanaku scenarios and a host of others are valid examples.

Eventually, it became clearer to every keen observer that he was politically loyal to Obasanjo. Of course, a son must run the DNA of his father. OBJ in his dictatorial nature, had manifestations in Lagun's life. He became a dictator too.

Jonathan came in and he began trying to flush out the old dictators and establish a new set of politicians. That was when OBJ, Oyinlola and others began having problems with GEJ.

Today however, that set of dictatorial fathers and sons are now in the APC. More worrisome is the fact that the APC is a conglomeration of dictators. ACN dictators who in themselves have no regard for internal democracy, APGA dictators led by another OBJ son looking for South-East dominance, PDP dictators in the mix of Saraki, the Kwara born-to-rule dynasty and a host of others. Oyinlola is one of these people now.

Their clashes of interest came so fast because the new PDP that took Oyinlola into APC consists of real dictators who wants power, yet wants to determine who gets the leftover. The ACN, CPC and APGA they went to meet are just in this category as well. How then can four he-goats mount one she?

The PDP ran into crisis in OSUN because under Oyinlola, the rules of internal democracy were thrown into the dustbin. The PDP ran into crisis in Nigeria because an old set of dictators clashed with a new, upcoming set....fire!

APC is now edging very close to that dilemma. The party is now essentially made up of egoistic politicians who all want power for the sake of power.

The party's implosion is nearer than we think!