AN OPEN LETTER TO GOVERNOR AYODELE FAYOSE

BEFORE YOU VEER OFF THE COURSE

I must send my humble regards first before I convey to you my message sir. You are a very popular and well respected Governor in the country and I must sincerely tell you sir, that you are a shining light that many young persons are proud of, myself inclusive. May God continue to help you in the good work.

In the light of recent happenings in the country sir, it becomes pertinent that I write you and bring to your notice a few important things that may have escaped your attention. This I consider to be feedback and seeing the way and manner you mingle with your State people, I am constrained to believe you are a man who appreciates feedback.

You should know sir, that when Dr. Bukola Saraki became Senate President, a good number of us were extremely excited that at long last, the younger generation of leaders was getting an opportunity to ease the Obasanjo generation out. Alas, his present travails seem to be pointing to the fact that his star shined too early and it is about to be darkened. I pray for him every day that whatever might be the plans to silence him, he will find God’s mercy to overcome it.

I must also point out to you sir, that while Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was still President, Aregbesola became an instant darling of so many people because he had a condescending gut about him that gave him the opportunity to denigrate the office of the President at every given opportunity. So many people saw him as bold, forthright and fearless at the time but thoughtful young Nigerians saw in him a nuisance who is not fit to be called a leader in a respectable society. He was joined in this category by Governor Adams Oshiomole.

It will be important for you to know sir, that you are a combination of both men in the hearts of young Nigerians in this present day. So many of us see you as one of the shining lights of the newer generation whose star seems to be shining bright and giving us hope. We also see you as being a fearless, bold and forthright young Governor who does not shy away from saying the truth to the President’s face.

However, it become pertinent that I represent the younger generation to warn you of two impending doom and advice you so you can maintain your position in our hearts.

First your Excellency, you must make sure that the exuberances of young leadership do not push you into making financial mistakes that will put your safety in jeopardy at the end of your tenure. I believe you are aware that the persons you daily confront have a year in power longer than your immunity clause will last and they will seek to come after you with every resource in their capacity. You must make sure you leave the Ekiti Governorship seat as financially clean as possible. This is the only way you will escape the Bukola Saraki treatment.

Second and finally, you must also make sure that in the course of being bold and forthright, you must make sure you do not veer off the lane of credibility. You must not confront for the sake of confrontation, but you must make every confrontation count so that even when we refuse to believe you, we will have the future regrets of saying ‘Fayose told us so’. You must put in your best energy into making sure you do not become a careless talker, lest your adversaries call you a simple mouth-runner. This is what Aregbesola and Oshiomole have successfully become and you would want to do us the favour of avoiding that fate.

Your Excellency sir, there is a lot of hope bundled on your shoulders for the younger generation sir. This is further highlighted by the present leadership status you enjoy within the Peoples Democratic Party and the manner in which God has continued to confirm the words of your mouth. I implore you to guard this for us very jealously so that posterity will bless the years for which you walked the face of the earth.

Receive sir, the assurances of my highest regards.

Yours Sincerely

Adedayo Oderinu
08033389517
ibuckresources@gmail.com
Facebook Page: Adedayo Oderinu

Hail PMB, the Complainant and the Judge!

DOES THIS OUR PRESIDENT KNOW WHAT HE IS DOING?

Its Night Thoughts today again with your amiable friend, Dayo Oderinu. Let's take this ride together tonight and reason together!

Two days ago, President Muhammadu Buhari became five months old as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. These five months being crucial takeoff periods is undoubtedly a time that should have been utilized for setting clear roadmaps for governance, formulating and making known key government policies that will shape the actions of this government for the remainder of its four years.

The most important question is, do we have any roadmap so far? Because he just clocked five months, I will examine his government using five key issues that affect our collective future. These are areas where I believe he has completely lacked knowledge.

1. WHY SHOULD WE KEEP DEFENDING THE NAIRA WITH OUR FOREIGN RESERVE?

I like to simplify complex government statements such that a layman can easily understand how these big vocabularies affect his life.

In recent times, the CBN has been defending the value of the Naira with our Foreign Reserves. What does this mean?

It is a known fact that crude oil remains the largest foreign exchange earner for Nigeria. Nigeria import activities on the other hand relies on the nation's foreign exchange to transact business. What this simply means is, the value of the dollars available to importers to transact their business is a function of how much forex the nation earns per time. Because the Nigerian system is such that encourages import at the expense of local production, that import forex requirement is quite huge.

In the days when crude sold competitively in the market, importers had access to huge foreign exchange as the country was earning wonderful figures in this regard. Then prices of crude crashed and the crisis began. Two things became evident in the face of the crisis that followed: it became difficult for importers to access foreign exchange, as little was coming in, so the forces of demand and supply settled in, and the dollar began selling at outrageous rates. The second thing that became evident is, Nigeria no longer earns enough from crude sales to fund its import requirements.

Instead of allowing marketplace determine the value of the Naira however, Baba's administration in his bid to force up the value of the naira, due to his uninformed campaign promises, is allowing the CBN to continue defending the naira with our foreign reserve.

The problem with this arrangement is, the FG through the CBN will keep depleting the Reserve towards defending the naira; unfortunately, if crude oil prices do not go up soon, we might end up emptying the reserve and the problem will still be left unsolved.

The common sense solution was, discourage importation as much as possible, stimulate local production at all cost and drastically reduce the nation's requirement for the dollar. But pending that time, allow the market forces dictate the value of the naira. Yes, commodity prices will go up, but it will soon spread around and once local production is promoted, the temporal hardships will disappear.

That was why I asked the question, why did Col. Hamid Ali (Rtd) lift the ban on rice importation? The answer that I got from pro-Buhari politicians was that the nation was losing much to smugglers, so it became better to lift the ban and receive appropriate duty payments. This argument is deficient. Even in the US, consumer products are daily smuggled from Mexico into the US....I am saying every nation loses a sizeable amount to smugglers in duty payments. Which risk was costlier? Attempting to increase duty collectibles or the fact that forex requirements will skyrocket in the process of legalizing rice import? I prefer we make our borders as secure as possible and continue to disallow the importation of rice so we can encourage local production.

Baba Buhari has ignorantly been pursuing a monetary policy that does not in any way contribute to the long term value of the naira and yet is draining our foreign reserves. He has not performed at all in this regard!

4. WILL BOKO HARAM TRULY END IN DECEMBER? AND WHERE ARE THE CHIBOK GIRLS?

It is saddening to note that in the last five months of President Buhari's administration, the mindless killings going on in the North East seem to have taken an even more worrisome dimension. People are now being killed like lizards.

What is baffling about the whole scenario is, Buhari boasted before the elections that Boko Haram would become history before he clocks one month on the seat. He won public sympathy with his many talks about Jonathan's incapacitation to end Boko Haram and his bad disposition towards the rescue of the Chibok Girls.

Today however, we are seeing more killings, the army is saying they do not even know the location of the girls again while Baba has continued feeding us with December deadline. Is this still possible? Why are we not seeing Madam Ezekwesili and her followers run campaigns for the chibok girls as they did in Jonathan's time? Do we assume that the Chibok drama was a fraud after all?

The big assertion here is, from all reports and indications, Baba has done no better than GEJ in the fight against insurgency. All we have right now, is the same worrisome situation still pending in our society.

5. WILL WE DRIVE ON ANTI-CORRUPTION?

So far, a number of projects that were already ongoing before GEJ left office have been abandoned.

Of notable importance is the Lagos-Ibadan expressway that was supposed to ease the vehicular movements that has long become worrisome on this route. The big question here is, if projects are being suspended because Baba is busy fighting corruption, shall we then drive on anti-corruption highway now?

The fight against corruption is commendable if sincere, but while we fight corruption, we must as well allow for the full functionality of government institutions.

We do not necessarily have to cripple the system because we must catch thieves!

I ask that we all join hands and pray for Buhari though, for in the success of his administration lies also peace and prosperity for us, lest we have a failed government at the end of these four years!

Have a blissful night!

THE POLITICS OF APC AND THE PEOPLE WHO JONATHAN'S EXIT FAVOURED

Before I introduce you to my thoughts for the night, I must clearly tell you this. The facts as stated herein are verifiable facts that I came in contact with in the course of my experiences. People who have divergent opinions are allowed to bring them forward with facts.

JONATHAN HAD MORE ENEMIES THAN WE KNEW
In the year 2012, I had a personal encounter with an Uncle of Chief Godswill Akpabio. In fact, the man in question is today the one he refers to as his father, having lost his biological father at a tender age.
I must say, the senior Akpabio is as outspoken as Obot. In the course of our deliberations, he made certain shocking revelations that I still consider very highly till date. Most important of these revelations was the fact that Goodluck Jonathan was a stumbling block to Godswill's ambition. As you will expect, we got curious and asked for explanations.

He explained, that assuming Yar'adua had completed his two-term regime, Akpabio was being well positioned to run for Presidency in 2015. When Yar'adua died, many of the people who belonged to this school of thought believed Jonathan should not have sought reelection in 2011. According to the old man, Jonathan knowing that he is fry in the politics of the South-South should have bowed out and allow Northerners complete their tenure, then would Akpabio have had his chance.

Unfortunately, Jonathan came up for reelection and he won, putting the ambitions of the likes of Akpabio in real jeopardy. I can say categorically at this point, that the clamour for Jonathan's step-down in 2011 was largely sponsored by elements within the South-South, it was indeed the hand of Esau but the voice of Jacob. Key among these sponsors was Rotimi Amaechi and Godswill Akpabio.

When Jonathan eventually got elected, Akpabio had to quickly resolve the rift between them so he could be free of FG intimidation. Amaechi on his end did not do this. To even completely pacify Jonathan, Akpabio named the flyover entering UYO town after Jonathan. That was when the rift was settled and he promptly became one of Jonathan's backroom men. I must quickly point out that Akpabio did not get into GEJ's backroom because he trusted him completely, he got there because GEJ knowing how weak he was had to stuff up his backroom with tough politicians who had the clout he lacked. That was Mimiko and Akpabio's opportunity.

In the rundown to 2015 therefore, it was not only Rotimi Amaechi that did not wish GEJ well, a good number of his backroom people wanted him gone. I believe till today that Akpabio still nurses that Presidential ambition and he was one of those who didn't wish him well at all.

APC IS A COALITION OF NON-IDENTICAL BEDMATES
The politics of the US is such that each party is known for a certain manifesto as well as a particular set of ideologies. For example, the Republicans are known to be pro-rich while the Democrats seem to be more pro-masses. This explains why many Republicans kicked against the Obama healthcare bill.

In Nigeria here, many analysts and watchers make the mistake of thinking political parties in Nigeria do not have peculiar ideologies. They do. It must be said that the three notable parties in the country before the 2011 elections may not have clearcut manifestos, but the unifying factor of the members was an agreement of ideologies.

The PDP was a party of conservatives; the ACN was a party of progressives while the CPC were more of fundamentalists. Members of the PDP were not really joined by desire for power only, but they were joined by similarities in their governance ideas and political views. The ACN were joined by their belief in progressive ideologies, radical changes to the social structures and all that, while the CPC were joined together by their similar saintly beliefs and non-corruptive dispositions.

In the buildup to 2015 however, a new political party was born, the APC. This was not a party born of an agreement of ideologies of the founders, it was indeed born of similarities of goals, that allowed all parties set their ideologies aside for the time being. APC was formed, leading to the first conglomeration of politicians of varied ideas upon the same platform. The conservatives (new PDP) had to agree with Progressives (ACN) and the Fundamentalists (CPC) to achieve just one goal....send Jonathan packing.

As the first part of this post made clear, there were many elements within the PDP who wanted Jonathan gone. A good number of these elements went into the APC while the rest stayed back and ensured that they misled GEJ until he lost at the polls. They all served the same purpose.

What we have today therefore, is an in-house disagreement within the APC that is a product of the glaring differences the constituent parties had in their ideologies. A political party runs by just one ideology and not an amalgamation of ideologies.

There will always be a tussle in this party.

PDP WILL REGROUP AND ITS ALREADY STARTING
One worrisome trait about the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is the fact that he is driven by desire only. He is never involved in a sincere struggle for the soul of the masses...baba always have a personal desire at the end of every struggle.

If we rewind and look into the genesis of the crisis between Baba and GEJ, we will notice the attempt by Jonathan to completely wrest control of the party from OBJ. This would have meant that he was going to lose the power to anoint anybody he wanted at anytime he desired. That meant Jonathan's head must go. The APC became the perfect opportunity for this vendetta.

Now that GEJ is gone and PDP has been humbled, the deserters from the party know very well that sojourning for long in the APC will be near impossible due to the domineering status of Tinubu.

In the power calculations however, the CPC ideologists own the President, ACN ideologists own the Vice President while the PDP ideologists own the Senate President and Speaker House of Representatives.
As power calculations continue, to attain higher power in preparation for the politics of 2019, the PDP ideologists are fully aware that they must amass as much power as possible to be able to produce the President come 2019, hence they must have maximum representation in the FEC. That then is where the Ministerial battles and Rotimi Amaechi comes in.

AMAECHI IS A CONSERVATIVE AND HIS PDP TIES ARE STILL VERY INTACT
A lot of unobservant analysts believe that Rotimi Amaechi has suddenly become the champion of the South-South because he 'single-handedly' championed the ouster of Jonathan. No, Amaechi had allies within the PDP who were supportive of his cause. As I showed in Part 1, Akpabio is one of these people, I am very certain.

Amaechi's travails in the Senate were stage-managed events only presented to Nigerians to give us the belief that the PDP deserters and their counterparts who stayed back are no longer in league. They are.

HOW IS AMAECHI'S CONFIRMATION A PLUS FOR THE PDP?
For the PDP to keep its 2019 hopes alive, Bukola Saraki must retain the seat of Senate President while Ekweremadu must as well remain on his seat. This will mean the PDP is still in complete control of the nation, albeit through the backdoor.

Amaechi was a stone that was used to kill two birds. It looked to everybody that one of the preconditions for Saraki to have at least temporal peace is to dance to the tune of the President on Amaechi's case. Refusing to dance to this tune would mean efforts at sending him packing will intensify and he will then have real problems.

Clearing Amaechi on one hand meant the President will presently leave Saraki alone as Senate President. The PDP can continue having their control.

On the other hand, clearing Amaechi meant one of the very people in the PDP fold who orchestrated the exit of GEJ has been established in this present government. The meaning of this is, the moment the PDP decides to regroup, their persons are well positioned to promote whatever agenda they decide to float come 2019.
Of all these drama, one thing is certain. Amaechi belongs to the camp of the conservatives and he will return to that camp openly or secretly as things continue to unravel.

The plus for the PDP here is, one of theirs get to remain President of Senate, they keep Nigerians guessing as much as possible, and they get to acquire as much Federal might as possible while staging a dramatic walkout.

I fully expect that by 2019, one of Amaechi, Saraki and Akpabio will be contesting President and these three overly ambitious men, will by then be in the same party!

It might as well be PDP, or wherever Baba leads....do I have to tell you who Baba is?

Namaste!

08158402483

WHAT REALLY IS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE?

On today's session of night thoughts, we will attempt to answer together, a fundamental question that begs answers if our democracy will ever grow.

What is the will of the people (electorates)?

On April 11, 2015, I witnessed all manner of despicable undemocratic practices at the various polling units that I was privileged to visit. The memory of that fateful day, coupled with recent happenings at the tribunals, has prompted me to ask this very important question. What is the will of the people? Is it a PDP-led government? Or APC-led? Or LP-led? Or what?

In one of the polling units I visited, I witnessed firsthand the attempt by one sycophant to intimidate members of an opposition party. He had a field day shooting sporadically in the air, while the police officers looked without concern. As the opponents mobilized to retaliate, the police began their own round of shooting and this festival of gunshots went on for almost two hours. In this scenario, the police obviously helped the troublemaker to oppress his opponents. This troublemaker was APC, the opponents were AP.

The night before the elections however, I witnessed the attempt by one of the political parties to rubbish one electoral officer based on devilish accusations. She was manhandled, embarrassed and handed over to the police for an offence she did not commit. Her release took the combined efforts of members of another party. The liars in this case were AP while the rescuers were APC.

On the day of the election again, I witnessed the unruly behaviour of one party agent. He was so unlawful that he attempted to confiscate the card reader from the APO II for his unit. His reason was, the officials refused to show him the card reader after every scan. It took the combined efforts of several elders to calm the situation. The troublemaker in this case was LP while the peacemakers were APC and PDP.

In another polling unit, I witnessed the trouble-ready disposition of one of the party agents. He was so badly mannered that he picked fights with every person whose opinion differed from his at the unit. We were able to control his troubles eventually though. He was PDP.

The irony of this illustration is, all of the parties involved acted illegally at one point or the other. Their actions were tailored at every instance, towards intimidating voters and creating undue advantages for their parties. Yet, these same parties will go on air today and claim to be fighting for the mandate of the people. Which mandate?

During the Presidential elections, Prof Attahiru Jega did the unexpected. Around midday, he instructed that all poll officials revert to manual verification of voters since the card readers were malfunctioning in many places. Factually speaking, this instruction gave the APC undue advantage in a State like Kano and the PDP undue advantage in a State like Rivers. Both parties exploited the situation and committed grave electoral offences. These actions were repeated in the Gubernatorial election.

You ask me, why are all these facts necessary? To answer two other important questions I'll tell you.

1. As majority of the judgement delivered at the tribunals have favored APC so far, majority of their supporters have been describing the situation as 'victory for democracy', 'victory for the rule of law' and in some cases, 'victory for the will of the people'. Do we call it true victory for the rule of law or political manipulations?

2. Most politicians of PDP extraction are claiming the APC has been victimizing their party at the tribunals thereby jeopardizing the free will of the people. Do we call it jeopardizing free will of the people or we call it survival of the fittest?

Clear instances have seen all of the political parties involved in electoral malpractices. We can therefore not adjudge any of them to be running on the free will of the Nigerian people. They all hijacked the will of the people at locations where they were stronger than their opposition. Would that still qualify as the people's will?

If the will of the people is being hijacked at the polls, it means the will of the people is still unknown. This is not good enough for our democracy.

What this should also mean to any right-thinking Nigerian is, we must brag moderately about the acceptability of any of these political parties. They all are hijackers of political will!

What then, is the will of the people?

Sleep good!